Escrito em 2008 , vem acontecendo na economia mundial no tempo atual, , aos amigos ,vale a pena ler….
The Great Depression Ahead
A New Book By: Harry S. Dent, Jr.
(Free Press, release date late December 2008)
The Perfect Storm: Peak Baby Boom Spending Collides With Peak Oil/Commodity Prices in 2009-2010
On the basis of predictable demographic and technology cycles, Harry Dent has forecast since the late 1980s that the economic boom would be greater than previously thought and would last until the end of the current decade. Dent has been one of the most bullish forecasters for decades, standing virtually alone in forecastingthe great bull market of the 1990s in his book The Great Boom Ahead (1992). Now he is calling for an end to this great bubble boom, after revising his forecasts downward for U.S. stocks in 2006 as a result of the
increasingly adverse geopolitical cycle and rising oil/commodity prices. In all of his past books since 1989, Dent saw an end to the Baby Boom spending cycle around the end of this decade.
Harry Dent forecast the housing slowdown years before it occurred and sees the minor recession of 2008 as the beginning of a greater stock crash and depression to unfold between 2009 and 2012, with the worst crash for stocks and housing likely between late 2009 and mid 2011. Home prices will continue to decline into late 2008 and then will likely experience a minor rebound in early to mid 2009. However, rising inflation, interest
rates and a last commodity bubble will bring a final blow to stocks, the economy, housing, and even the greater emerging market bubble in stocks overseas.
Between mid to late 2009 and mid to late 2012, the U.S. will see the next Great Depression and the
deflation of the “three bears,” bubbles in stocks, housing, and commodities. This occurrence will
represent the de-leveraging of the greatest credit bubble in history and will have much greater effects
than we have seen thus far on banking and financial systems. Americans will see the first and last
“Great Depression” of most of our lifetimes. Most people simply are not prepared for this coming
dramatic change in our economy. Aging Baby Boomers will see the worst of the economy in their
retirement years, much as the Bob Hope generation saw the worst in their early years in the 1930s and
in World War II on an 80-year generational cycle.
The Three Bears: Stocks, Real Estate, and Commodities
Approximately every 40 years, stocks and the economy have peaked cyclically in tandem with generation cycles in consumer spending, much like the striking of a clock.These peaks occurred in 1929 and in 1968, and the cyclemis now set to peak by late 2009. Harry Dent pioneered the Spending Wave, a 40-year generational spending cycle
that details a lag on the Immigration-Adjusted Birth
Index for the peak in spending to occur between the ages of 46 and 50. Chart 1 shows how this indicator has correlated with stock prices adjusted for inflation since the early 1950s. This indicator points downward from around 2010 into the early 2020s, as Dent similarlypredicted for Japan for the 1990s and early 2000s in the late 1980s. Japan’s baby boom peaked around two decades before similar baby booms in the U.S. and Europe and stocks crashed 80% and real estate 60% in the decade to follow. After the great crash ahead, Dent projects great opportunities globally, especially in Asia as
The Three Bears: Stocks, Real Estate, and Commodities
Approximately every 40 years, stocks and the economy
have peaked cyclically in tandem with generation cycles
in consumer spending, much like the striking of a clock.
These peaks occurred in 1929 and in 1968, and the cycle
is now set to peak by late 2009. Harry Dent pioneered the
Spending Wave, a 40-year generational spending cycle
that details a lag on the Immigration-Adjusted Birth
Index for the peak in spending to occur between the ages
of 46 and 50.
Chart 1 shows how this indicator has correlated with stock prices adjusted for inflation since the early 1950s.
This indicator points downward from around 2010 into the early 2020s, as Dent similarly predicted for Japan for the 1990s and early 2000s in the late 1980s. Japan’s baby boom peaked around two
decades before similar baby booms in the U.S. and Europe and stocks crashed 80% and real estate 60% in the decade to follow. After the great crash ahead, Dent projects great opportunities globally, especially in Asia as well as in the best health care segments in the U.S. as “Baby Boomers” age.
Chart 2 from Robert Shiller shows how overvalued home prices have become versus long-term inflation trends and replacement costs when adjusted for size and quality. Home prices have to fall by 40% to 50% to get back to reality; this will occur in the coming decade as BabyBoom spending finally decreases, from 2010 onward. Real estate markets, however, vary in migration and overvaluation by region, and there will be many pockets of real estate opportunity in the Southeast, Southwest,and Rockies during the downturn ahead. Commodity and oil prices also follow a clocklike 29- to 30-year cycle (Chart 3), which peaked in 1920, 1951, and1980 in the last century.
The next cycle peak is due around late 2009, in a perfect collision with the peak in the broader Baby Boom spending cycle in Chart 1. Many forecasters predict that growing demand in emerging markets like China will keep commodity prices high for
many years. Dent forecasts instead that the extremes yet ahead, including oil prices as high as $200, will force a global slowdown by 2010 in already slowing developed countries due to demographic trends — including countries with emerging markets, which spend the most on food and commodities. Another long-term commodity boom will occur from the early 2020s into the late 2030s on this cycle.
The coming collision between the peak in Baby Boom spending in the U.S. and developed world and the global commodity bubble will create the perfect stormfor the next great crash in stocks and a global
downturn, much like what occurred with the 1930s
depression. This situation will present a once-in-a lifetime opportunity to get safe and liquid and to buy financial assets at the greatest sale in modern history!
In his new book, The Great Crash Ahead (Free Press, 2008), Harry Dent outlines how this next great downturn is likely to unfold in three stages, with an interim boom stage between 2012 and 2017 before the long-term slowdown finally turns into the next global boom in the early 2020s. India, not China, will dominate in this next global boom and the U.S. will outpace Europe. Dent shows which countries will have stronger growth trends during the downturn as well. More important, he shows how the economy’s life cycle will affect life, business, and investment strategies throughout a person’s lifetime, including career opportunities and mchildren’s educational costs. No other time period is as likely to affect your wealth and well-being as the period from late 2009 into late 2012—especially late 2009 to mid 2011.
In 1992 in The Great Boom Ahead, Harry Dent said, “Get ready for the greatest boom in history.” Now
he says, “Get ready for the next Great Depression.”
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